BlackRock’s autumn outlook contains a more useful risk observation than another argument about semiconductor multiples. Technology’s weight in the iBoxx USD Liquid Investment Grade index has risen from 9.3% in January 2025 to 11.6%; tech accounts for roughly 20% of this year’s new US investment-grade issuance, and over 30% of long-duration supply. The capex boom is changing the composition of the supposedly different asset class. BlackRock/iShares
My read: the relevant enterprise-risk question is whether equity exposure, hyperscaler debt and AI-linked financing are being stressed as one investment cycle. Separate sector limits can miss a common dependence on capex continuing and refinancing remaining cheap. A useful joint scenario is an AI earnings disappointment alongside widening credit spreads—not simply a larger Nasdaq shock.
The objection matters: index composition does not establish any particular portfolio’s exposure, and higher correlation in a recent window is not a stable risk parameter. This is a reason to inspect the aggregation, not to decree that bonds have become tech stocks.