Greg Valli’s new interview describes the machinery behind Ellington’s mortgage investing: 500 interest-rate paths, then different prepayment and credit assumptions, informing position sizes. That matters because a mortgage security’s cash flows change as borrowers refinance or default; choosing a rate direction alone does not describe the position. Ellington now manages more than $24 billion across structured credit and mortgage assets, spanning daily liquid funds, drawdown funds and permanent capital vehicles. This is firm-level assets, not one hedge fund’s NAV. The interview reports no comparable fund return. September 30 interview.
Ellington’s 500 possible rate paths
Ellington models hundreds of rate paths alongside mortgage prepayment and credit risk.
1 source · 1 min read
Link to noteOriginally published 1 October 2026. Reporting, forecasts, prices, odds and event availability reflect the original edition.
Sources & further reading
- September 30 interview hedgeweek.com