The best candidate I found is Ohio State at +100 or better before the boost, against Texas tonight, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC. This is a price to verify in your account, not a currently executable quote. FanDuel’s article lists +100 in its text and +104 in its embedded card, without a trustworthy quote timestamp; I could not verify a live FanDuel or comparable DraftKings offer. FanDuel’s listed selection
The case does not require believing Ohio State is the better team. Friday’s model comparison reports FPI at 40.2% for Ohio State, against 55% from SP+. Use the less bullish FPI case, not an average engineered to look persuasive. FPI combines performance and preseason priors; its method is documented, but the exact current input cutoff and recent calibration were not established. Dated matchup forecasts
At +100, the boost produces +200, requiring 33.3% to break even and giving +20.6% model-implied expected return at 40.2%. The FPI-only zero-edge boundary is approximately −134 before boosting; at −135 or shorter it fails even that point-estimate test. That boundary is not permission to chase the price down. The conditional candidate here is the reported +100 offer or better, and 40.2% is a model scenario—not a calibrated lower confidence bound.
The counterargument is substantial: Austin is the road test, and one comfortable opener per team tells us little about true strength. Recheck Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith and Arch Manning’s availability and expected roles, plus final lineup news; no unsupported injury adjustment is embedded here. I prefer researching the moneyline to inventing a probability for Smith’s receiving-yards prop or the spread.
The official token covers this game, admits New York customers and requires pre-boost odds −200 or longer; eligibility and maximum stake are account-specific. Confirm the 100%, not the separate 50% offer, is actually applied. Use the full-game moneyline, including overtime, and recheck before kickoff; the token itself expires at midnight. Offer terms, New York settlement rules